產業脈動｜2019台灣模具產業回顧與RCEP、CPTPP簽訂對臺灣模具產業之影響

台灣模具2019年產值為487億新台幣，出口值183億，產值與出口值均為近5年新低，主要是因為全球景氣持續低迷，且隨著美中貿易戰的影響，預期將會是個長期且未解的狀態，再加上2020年新冠肺炎疫情的爆發，讓全球經濟活動幾乎停擺，台灣模具產業也面臨到不小的衝擊。此外，台灣模具品質精良，但外銷甚少，關鍵因素之一就是台灣缺乏自由貿易的夥伴，台灣主要出口國為中國大陸、美國與泰國，但卻無零關稅優勢，相較競爭對手-韓國(主要出口國與產品相似度高達8成)，其與多國簽訂自由貿易協定，無疑間接影響我國模具在國際市場之競爭力，再者，隨著 RCEP 與 CPTPP簽訂，對台灣模具產業的影響為何，也是此篇我們將深入探討的重點。依照目前產業狀況來看，預期2020年整年度模具產業將會持續受到全球疫情的拖累，產值預估為450億新台幣，預期出口值為165億新台幣，我們也將持續觀察美中貿易與新冠肺炎對模具產業帶來的影響。

The output value of Taiwan-manufactured molds and dies in 2019 reached NT$48.7 billion, and the export value was NT$18.3 billion, which were 5-year lows. The primary reason for such lows was the economic slowdown. Also, it is expected that the situation will remain unresolved over the long-term due to the US-China trade war. In addition, with the worldwide spread of COVID-19 in 2020, the global economy is already in a recession. The Taiwan die market has also been affected by these factors. In addition, notwithstanding the high quality of Taiwan-manufactured dies, the export growth is actually very low. One key factor is the lack of trading partners. Taiwan’s top trading partners are China, US, and Thailand. However, Taiwan does not have zero-tariff measures with these countries. Compare to its competitors, for instance, South Korea which shares 80% of its export countries and products with Taiwan, who has signed free-trade agreements with several countries, there is undoubtedly an indirect influence on the competitive strength of Taiwan-manufactured dies in international market. Furthermore, the CPTPP is soon to be signed among the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) members, which may further impact Taiwan's die industry. This impact will be extensively discussed in this article. The forecast projects that the die industry will be hindered by the global pandemic in 2020. The forecast output value is at NT$45 billion and the forecast export value is at NT$16.5 billion. We will continue observing the changes caused by the US-China trade war and the COVID-19.